A report prepared by our team has shed light on Kerala’s alarming monsoon trends over the past decade. This study, conducted by researchers Parthiev K S, Litty Adens, and Kripa Jose, outlines how Kerala's monsoon season has transformed from a predictable weather pattern into an increasingly dangerous period marked by deadly floods, landslides, and, more recently, droughts. These findings emphasize the urgent need for improved disaster preparedness and sustainable practices to mitigate the impact of climate change on the state.
Introduction
Kerala, India’s lush southwestern state, has long been known for its reliance on the monsoon season to sustain its agriculture and natural resources. Yet, over the past decade, the monsoon has transformed from a reliable source of life-giving rain to a season marked by unpredictable and often deadly extremes. From record-breaking floods to severe droughts, Kerala’s relationship with the monsoon is now one of volatility, with each year bringing new and intensified weather challenges. This report traces the key monsoon events over the last decade, underscoring the urgent need for disaster preparedness in the face of climate change.
A Timeline of Monsoon Disasters
2018: Catastrophic Flooding
The year 2018 stands out as a defining point in Kerala’s monsoon history. With a record-breaking 3,649 mm of rainfall, far exceeding the state’s normal of 2,388 mm, Kerala faced its worst flood in a century. Nearly every district was affected as rivers overflowed, reservoirs were forced to release excess water, and landslides ravaged vulnerable regions. The floods tragically claimed over 483 lives and displaced thousands, causing an estimated ₹40,000 crore in damages. International attention and relief efforts followed, marking this event as a stark reminder of the immense power of nature.
2019: Deadly Landslides
The devastation of 2018 gave way to further tragedy in 2019. Although rainfall was closer to the annual norm, a series of intense, localized rains triggered deadly landslides. The districts of Puthumala in Wayanad and Kavalapara in Nilambur were particularly affected, with 17 lives lost in Puthumala and 59 in Kavalapara. Research indicates that the combination of excessive rainfall and human activities like deforestation and unplanned construction weakened slopes, exacerbating the landslides. In total, 177 people died due to landslide-related incidents, emphasizing the need for sustainable practices in Kerala’s hilly regions.
2020: The Pettimudi Tragedy
In 2020, Kerala recorded slightly below-average rainfall but experienced another devastating event. A massive landslide in the Pettimudi area of Idukki district claimed 66 lives, burying entire worker quarters under debris. This disaster highlighted the dangers facing Kerala’s mountainous regions, where steep slopes and intense rainfall often lead to deadly landslides. The recurring landslides and associated tragedies pointed to the increasing need for disaster preparedness and slope management in vulnerable areas.
2021: Highest Rainfall in 60 Years
Kerala experienced an exceptional monsoon season in 2021, receiving the highest rainfall in six decades, with totals reaching over 3,600 mm. Heavy downpours led to multiple landslides across Idukki and Kottayam, with entire communities buried under debris. Despite government and disaster management efforts, the volume of rainfall overwhelmed the state’s response systems, raising concerns about Kerala’s ability to handle such intense monsoon events in the future. This year underscored the increasing unpredictability of the monsoon season in Kerala.
2022: Landslides Amidst Moderating Rainfall
While 2022 saw slightly lower rainfall at around 2,988 mm, landslides continued to pose a significant threat. In July, intense rains triggered a fatal landslide in Thodupuzha, Idukki district, resulting in five deaths and extensive property damage. These events highlighted the ongoing vulnerability of Kerala’s highland areas, where even moderate rainfall can destabilize slopes due to prior human interference and ecological degradation.
2023: A Year of Drought
In stark contrast to the heavy rains of previous years, 2023 brought a severe drought to Kerala. With only 2,076 mm of rainfall recorded, the state faced significant challenges in agriculture, water supply, and food security. The drought led to reduced crop yields, affecting thousands of farmers, while reservoirs fell to critically low levels. This year of drought illustrated the erratic nature of Kerala’s monsoon, demonstrating how quickly the state can swing from excess to scarcity.
2024: Tragic Landslides Amidst High Rainfall
As of mid-2024, Kerala had already recorded rainfall well above the expected levels, contributing to severe landslides in the hilly regions of Wayanad, particularly in Mundakkai. A tragic landslide in July claimed 240 lives, burying entire communities and underscoring the vulnerability of Kerala’s Western Ghats. With 20-degree inclines and ecological sensitivity, areas like Mundakkai are particularly prone to such disasters. The absence of a red alert in this region has raised concerns about the adequacy of Kerala’s early warning systems.
The Broader Impact of Unpredictable Monsoons
Kerala’s monsoon season has become a period of extreme weather, with floods, droughts, and landslides occurring more frequently and intensely than before. This decade of deadly monsoons not only affects the state’s residents but also poses risks to its economy, agricultural productivity, and natural resources. The unpredictability of monsoon rains makes effective planning challenging, and the events of recent years suggest that extreme weather events may become the “new normal” for Kerala.
Toward a More Prepared and Resilient Kerala
To address these mounting challenges, Kerala must prioritize a multi-pronged approach that includes:
- Improved Early Warning Systems: Expanding and refining weather forecasting and early alert systems can help mitigate the impact of extreme monsoon events.
- Stricter Land-Use Regulations: Limiting construction and human activities in ecologically sensitive zones, as recommended by the Gadgil Report, can help stabilize vulnerable regions.
- Sustainable Land Management: Reforestation, slope management, and careful urban planning are crucial to reduce the risk of landslides in highland areas.
- Community Education and Preparedness: Ensuring that residents in vulnerable regions are aware of risks and prepared to respond during extreme events.
Conclusion
Kerala’s monsoon has shifted from a life-sustaining season to a period marked by extremes. This decade of fluctuating weather patterns serves as a reminder of the urgent need for climate resilience and disaster preparedness. As climate change continues to influence the intensity and distribution of rainfall, Kerala must adopt adaptive strategies to safeguard lives and livelihoods in the years ahead.
Read the full report prepared by Parthiev K S, Litty Adens, and Kripa Jose.
