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Kerala Election 2026
April 9, 2026

Who Will Govern
Kerala Next?

Our data intelligence model aggregates 7 pre-election surveys, 2024 Lok Sabha segment leads, December 2025 local body results and social media analytics across all 140 constituencies.

00
Days
00
Hours
00
Mins
00
Secs
UDF Projected
74
Range 65–82 Β· Probability 60%
LDF Projected
62
Range 55–72 Β· Probability 38%
NDA Projected
3
Range 1–5 Β· Nemom likely BJP
Majority Mark
71 seats
40 toss-ups decide the outcome
β„Ή Data Intelligence Note: All projections are based on aggregated secondary data β€” published surveys (including C-Voter's 89,693-respondent study), official election commission results, Meta Ad Library data, and public social media monitoring. These are probabilistic estimates, not predictions. Results are declared on May 4, 2026.
Election Intelligence

The Big Picture

Kerala's 2026 election is the most competitive since 1982. The LDF seeks a historic third consecutive term while UDF rides structural momentum from sweeping the 2024 Lok Sabha and 2025 local body elections.

Total Seats
140
Majority mark: 71
Registered Voters
26.95M
Across 14 districts
Surveys Aggregated
7
89,693 respondents (C-Voter)
Toss-Up Seats
40
Decide who governs
2024 LS: UDF Led
111/140
Segments across Kerala
KIIFB Meta Spend
β‚Ή1.69Cr
Jan–Mar 2026 (vs BJP β‚Ή47L)
β˜… Key Finding

UDF leads in 5 of 7 major surveys and swept 18/20 Lok Sabha seats in 2024. CM Vijayan's approval rating of 21.5% now trails Opposition Leader Satheesan's 25.2% β€” an unusual scenario for a sitting chief minister. The 40 genuine toss-up seats make both outcomes possible within the model's margin of error.

Survey Seat Projections
Midpoint of published seat ranges β€” 6 pre-election surveys
Government Probability
Composite model output across all five weighted inputs
2024 Lok Sabha Segment Leads
Which party led within each assembly constituency
Voter Priorities
Top issues from Vote Vibe / CNN-News18 survey
What's Driving the Race
Anti-incumbency is real but nuanced. Analyst K.J. Jacob: "No strong anti-incumbency against the government, but significant personal dissatisfaction with CM Vijayan." LDF's welfare delivery record (62L pensioners, 5L+ LIFE Mission homes) provides a meaningful floor of support.
KIIFB advertising controversy. A state infrastructure body outspent BJP Kerala's official party page 3:1 on Meta β€” β‚Ή1.69 crore vs β‚Ή47 lakh across January–March 2026. KIIFB ran 573 ads in March featuring all 98 sitting LDF MLAs. Several ran after the Model Code of Conduct. Kerala HC PIL filed.
"Iruvar" backfire. The CM Vijayan-Mohanlal interview produced by PRD became Kerala's "mango moment" β€” widespread meme mockery, ironic view counts, and neutral commentators calling it "mutual life-support." It confirmed the opposition framing that LDF needs celebrity endorsement because its governance record alone cannot carry the campaign.
SPARK data breach allegations. The CMO allegedly used phone numbers from 5 lakh government employees and Sthree Suraksha welfare scheme beneficiaries for WhatsApp campaigning via a Mumbai agency. Kerala HC initially flagged the practice as a privacy intrusion. The Sthree Suraksha angle β€” women welfare beneficiaries' data used for political messaging β€” remains legally unresolved.
Beypore is the most-watched seat in India. Tourism Minister PA Mohammed Riyas (CM's son-in-law) faces PV Anvar, a former CPI-M MLA who ran a 15+ month rebel campaign coining the term "Pinarayism." Riyas filing an ECI complaint against Anvar's rhetoric is itself a political signal that the attacks are landing effectively.
Section 02

Key Candidates to Watch

Digital profiles, social media reach, and constituency analysis for the most consequential candidates across all three alliances.

Pinarayi Vijayan
Pinarayi Vijayan
Dharmadam, Kannur Β· Chief Minister Β· Age 80
Facebook
1.7M
Instagram
1M
Twitter/X
1.1M
CM Pref. β˜…
21.5%
KK Shailaja
KK Shailaja
Peravoor, Kannur Β· "Kerala's Corona Slayer"
Facebook
928K
Instagram
453K
Engagement
340K
LDF Base Pref.
24.2%
PA Mohammed Riyas
PA Mohammed Riyas
Beypore, Kozhikode Β· Tourism Minister Β· CM's son-in-law
Facebook
885K
Instagram
1M
Twitter/X
30.3K
Status
ECI complaint filed vs Anvar
KN Balagopal
KN Balagopal
Kottarakkara, Kollam Β· Finance Minister
Facebook
149K
Instagram
3,459 (very low)
Opponent
Aisha Potti (UDF)
Risk
TOSS-UP seat
Veena George
Veena George
Aranmula, Pathanamthitta Β· Health Minister
Instagram
119K
Key Issue
Sabarimala gold case
NDA Factor
Kummanam (BJP)
Status
TOSS-UP / NDA
Saji Cherian
Saji Cherian
Chengannur, Alappuzha Β· 2021 margin 32,093 votes
2021 Margin
32,093
Controversy
Constitution remark
Status
TOSS-UP
Upset Risk
HIGH
VD Satheesan
VD Satheesan
Paravur, Ernakulam Β· Leader of Opposition Β· 5-time MLA
Facebook
540K
Instagram
349K
Twitter/X
31.6K
CM Pref. β˜…
25.2%
Ramesh Chennithala
Ramesh Chennithala
Haripad, Alappuzha Β· 8-time MLA Β· Former Home Minister
2021 Margin
32,019
Constituency
LEAN UDF
Experience
8-term MLA
Risk Level
LOW
PV Anvar
PV Anvar
Beypore, Kozhikode Β· UDF-backed Independent Β· Ex-CPI-M MLA
Campaign
15+ months
Instagram
64K
Key Framing
"Pinarayism"
Signal
Riyas filed ECI complaint
Chandy Oommen
Chandy Oommen
Puthuppally, Kottayam Β· Son of 2-time CM Oommen Chandy
2023 Bypoll
37,719
District
UDF dominant
Classification
SAFE UDF
Risk
VERY LOW
MB Rajesh
VT Balram (vs MB Rajesh)
Thrithala, Palakkad Β· UDF vs Assembly Speaker
LDF 2021 Margin
26,068
C-Voter Signal
UDF slight edge
Speaker Upset?
LIKELY
Status
TOSS-UP
Uma Thomas
Uma Thomas
Thrikkakara, Ernakulam Β· Won 2022 bypoll by 25,000
2021 Margin
25,000
District
UDF 12/14
Classification
LEAN UDF
Risk
LOW
Rajeev Chandrasekhar
Rajeev Chandrasekhar
Nemom, Thiruvananthapuram Β· Ex-Union Minister Β· BJP Fla
Twitter/X
156K
C-Voter
Projected WIN
TVM Corp 2025
NDA 17/23 wards
Status
NDA COMPETITIVE
KS
K Surendran
Manjeshwar, Kasaragod Β· BJP State President Β· 3rd attempt
Instagram
91K
Twitter/X
65.6K
Previous Loss
89 votes (2016)
2021 Loss
745 votes
SS
Sobha Surendran
Palakkad Β· BJP Β· Three-way contest in BJP-won municipality
Instagram
134K
BJP Palakkad
3x Municipality Win
Win Prob.
34%
Status
TOSS-UP / NDA
VM
V Muraleedharan
Kazhakkoottam, Thiruvananthapuram Β· Ex-Union Minister
National Profile
Very High
2024 LS Lead
NDA ahead
Status
TOSS-UP / NDA
Corp Wards
NDA won nearby
Section 03

District Breakdown

All 14 districts analysed using C-Voter district trends, 2025 local body results, and 2024 Lok Sabha segment data.

Seat Projections by District
Base case: LDF vs UDF vs NDA across all 14 districts
Seat Classification Breakdown
All 140 seats classified by composite model confidence
Section 04

Interactive Constituency Tracker

All 140 constituencies with win probability data. Filter by district, alliance, or classification. Toss-up seats are highlighted in purple.

Filter:
πŸ”
140 seats
#ConstituencyDistrict Predicted WinnerAlliance LDF%UDF%NDA% BarsClassification
Section 05

The 20 Seats That Decide Kerala

Win 12 or more of these 20 toss-up constituencies and you form the government. These are the battlegrounds where every vote matters most.

Nemom
Rajeev Chandrasekhar (NDA) vs V. Sivankutty (LDF)
NDA Competitive
Beypore
PV Anvar (UDF) vs PA Mohammed Riyas (LDF)
Toss-Up
Palakkad
Pisharody (UDF) vs Sobha Surendran (NDA) vs Rasak (LDF)
Three-Way
Peravoor
KK Shailaja (LDF) vs Sunny Joseph (UDF / KPCC President)
Toss-Up
Thrissur
Rajan Pallan (UDF) vs Alankode (LDF) vs Padmaja Venugopal (NDA)
Three-Way
Aluva
Anwar Sadath (UDF) vs AM Ariff (LDF / ex-Dy Speaker)
Toss-Up
Kazhakkoottam
V. Muraleedharan (NDA) vs Kadakampally (LDF)
NDA Competitive
Aranmula
UDF vs Veena George (LDF) vs Kummanam (NDA)
Three-Way
Thrithala
VT Balram (UDF) vs MB Rajesh (LDF / Assembly Speaker)
Toss-Up
Ambalappuzha
G. Sudhakaran (UDF rebel) vs H. Salam (LDF)
Toss-Up
Kottarakkara
Aisha Potti (UDF) vs KN Balagopal (LDF / Finance Minister)
Toss-Up
Vattiyoorkavu
VK Prasanth (LDF) vs K Muraleedharan (UDF) vs Sreelekha (NDA)
Three-Way
Idukki
Roy K Paulose (UDF) vs Roshy Augustine (LDF, 5-term MLA)
Toss-Up
Pala
Mani C Kappan (UDF) vs Jose K Mani (LDF)
Toss-Up
Chengannur
UDF vs Saji Cherian (LDF, 32K margin but constitution controversy)
Toss-Up
Kuttanad
LDF vs UDF β€” plantation worker vote decides
Toss-Up
Thavanur
VS Joy (UDF) vs KT Jaleel (LDF, transferred here)
Toss-Up
Mananthavady
UDF (Priyanka Gandhi halo) vs OR Kelu (LDF)
Toss-Up
Kuttiadi
UDF vs LDF β€” 2021 margin just 333 votes
Toss-Up
Ettumanoor
UDF vs VN Vasavan (LDF / ex-minister) in resurgent UDF Kottayam
Toss-Up
Section 06

Our Prediction

Based on aggregated secondary data β€” 7 surveys, 2024 Lok Sabha segment leads, 2025 local body results, social media analytics, and historical swing analysis.

β˜… Bottom Line

UDF is most likely to form Kerala's next government with approximately 74 seats β€” above the 71-seat majority mark. Five of seven surveys project UDF ahead. The 2024 Lok Sabha sweep (18/20 seats, leads in 111/140 assembly segments) and December 2025 local body performance (4/6 corporations including Thiruvananthapuram for the first time) provide the strongest available secondary data signal. However, 38% probability remains for LDF retaining power β€” the 40 toss-up seats ensure this is genuinely contested.

UDF β€” Most Likely
74
Range: 65–82 seats
Probability: 60%
LDF β€” Possible
62
Range: 55–72 seats
Probability: 38%
NDA β€” Limited
3
Range: 1–5 seats
Kingmaker: 2%
Confidence Level
Moderate
40 toss-ups are decisive
Results: May 4, 2026
Probability of Forming Government
UDF
60%
LDF
38%
NDA
2%
High-Profile Upsets to Watch
ConstituencyLikely UpsetPotential WinnerKey Reason
NemomV. Sivankutty (LDF) losesRajeev Chandrasekhar (NDA)C-Voter projects BJP win Β· TVM Corp NDA 17/23 wards 2025
ThrithalaMB Rajesh (Speaker) losesVT Balram (UDF)C-Voter tips UDF Β· District trends fully reversed since 2021
IdukkiRoshy Augustine (5-term) losesRoy K Paulose (UDF)UDF won all 5 segments in 2024 LS AND 2025 local body
AmbalappuzhaH. Salam (CPM) losesG. Sudhakaran (rebel-UDF)CPI-M itself said "losing Ambalappuzha = losing Kerala"
KottarakkaraKN Balagopal (FM) losesAisha Potti (UDF)Kollam Corp: first UDF win in 25 years completely rewrites narrative
ChengannurSaji Cherian loses despite 32K marginUDF candidateConstitution remark controversy cannot be fully insulated by margin
β„Ή All projections are based on secondary data sources: published pre-election surveys, official ECI election results (2021–2025), Meta Ad Library (public data), and public social media monitoring. Margin of error: Β±5–8 seats at state level. Per-constituency win probabilities carry Β±8–12% MoE. Kerala elections have historically defied pre-poll surveys. Results declared May 4, 2026.

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Note: This page presents data intelligence based entirely on secondary sources β€” published pre-election surveys, official election commission data, Meta Ad Library (public data), and public social media monitoring. No primary fieldwork was conducted. All projections are probabilistic estimates subject to margin of error. Kerala election results will be officially declared on May 4, 2026.
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