Who Will Govern
Kerala Next?
Our data intelligence model aggregates 7 pre-election surveys, 2024 Lok Sabha segment leads, December 2025 local body results and social media analytics across all 140 constituencies.
The Big Picture
Kerala's 2026 election is the most competitive since 1982. The LDF seeks a historic third consecutive term while UDF rides structural momentum from sweeping the 2024 Lok Sabha and 2025 local body elections.
UDF leads in 5 of 7 major surveys and swept 18/20 Lok Sabha seats in 2024. CM Vijayan's approval rating of 21.5% now trails Opposition Leader Satheesan's 25.2% β an unusual scenario for a sitting chief minister. The 40 genuine toss-up seats make both outcomes possible within the model's margin of error.
Key Candidates to Watch
Digital profiles, social media reach, and constituency analysis for the most consequential candidates across all three alliances.
District Breakdown
All 14 districts analysed using C-Voter district trends, 2025 local body results, and 2024 Lok Sabha segment data.
Interactive Constituency Tracker
All 140 constituencies with win probability data. Filter by district, alliance, or classification. Toss-up seats are highlighted in purple.
| # | Constituency | District | Predicted Winner | Alliance | LDF% | UDF% | NDA% | Bars | Classification |
|---|
The 20 Seats That Decide Kerala
Win 12 or more of these 20 toss-up constituencies and you form the government. These are the battlegrounds where every vote matters most.
Our Prediction
Based on aggregated secondary data β 7 surveys, 2024 Lok Sabha segment leads, 2025 local body results, social media analytics, and historical swing analysis.
UDF is most likely to form Kerala's next government with approximately 74 seats β above the 71-seat majority mark. Five of seven surveys project UDF ahead. The 2024 Lok Sabha sweep (18/20 seats, leads in 111/140 assembly segments) and December 2025 local body performance (4/6 corporations including Thiruvananthapuram for the first time) provide the strongest available secondary data signal. However, 38% probability remains for LDF retaining power β the 40 toss-up seats ensure this is genuinely contested.
| Constituency | Likely Upset | Potential Winner | Key Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nemom | V. Sivankutty (LDF) loses | Rajeev Chandrasekhar (NDA) | C-Voter projects BJP win Β· TVM Corp NDA 17/23 wards 2025 |
| Thrithala | MB Rajesh (Speaker) loses | VT Balram (UDF) | C-Voter tips UDF Β· District trends fully reversed since 2021 |
| Idukki | Roshy Augustine (5-term) loses | Roy K Paulose (UDF) | UDF won all 5 segments in 2024 LS AND 2025 local body |
| Ambalappuzha | H. Salam (CPM) loses | G. Sudhakaran (rebel-UDF) | CPI-M itself said "losing Ambalappuzha = losing Kerala" |
| Kottarakkara | KN Balagopal (FM) loses | Aisha Potti (UDF) | Kollam Corp: first UDF win in 25 years completely rewrites narrative |
| Chengannur | Saji Cherian loses despite 32K margin | UDF candidate | Constitution remark controversy cannot be fully insulated by margin |
Ready to Transform Data into Decisions?
Infocrita Data Solutions delivers custom analytics, research, and intelligence services for businesses, governments, and academic institutions across India.
Who Will Govern
Kerala Next?
Our data intelligence model aggregates 7 pre-election surveys, 2024 Lok Sabha segment leads, December 2025 local body results and social media analytics across all 140 constituencies.
The Big Picture
Kerala's 2026 election is the most competitive since 1982. The LDF seeks a historic third consecutive term while UDF rides structural momentum from sweeping the 2024 Lok Sabha and 2025 local body elections.
UDF leads in 5 of 7 major surveys and swept 18/20 Lok Sabha seats in 2024. CM Vijayan's approval rating of 21.5% now trails Opposition Leader Satheesan's 25.2% β an unusual scenario for a sitting chief minister. The 40 genuine toss-up seats make both outcomes possible within the model's margin of error.
Key Candidates to Watch
Digital profiles, social media reach, and constituency analysis for the most consequential candidates across all three alliances.
District Breakdown
All 14 districts analysed using C-Voter district trends, 2025 local body results, and 2024 Lok Sabha segment data.
Interactive Constituency Tracker
All 140 constituencies with win probability data. Filter by district, alliance, or classification. Toss-up seats are highlighted in purple.
| # | Constituency | District | Predicted Winner | Alliance | LDF% | UDF% | NDA% | Bars | Classification |
|---|
The 20 Seats That Decide Kerala
Win 12 or more of these 20 toss-up constituencies and you form the government. These are the battlegrounds where every vote matters most.
Our Prediction
Based on aggregated secondary data β 7 surveys, 2024 Lok Sabha segment leads, 2025 local body results, social media analytics, and historical swing analysis.
UDF is most likely to form Kerala's next government with approximately 74 seats β above the 71-seat majority mark. Five of seven surveys project UDF ahead. The 2024 Lok Sabha sweep (18/20 seats, leads in 111/140 assembly segments) and December 2025 local body performance (4/6 corporations including Thiruvananthapuram for the first time) provide the strongest available secondary data signal. However, 38% probability remains for LDF retaining power β the 40 toss-up seats ensure this is genuinely contested.
| Constituency | Likely Upset | Potential Winner | Key Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nemom | V. Sivankutty (LDF) loses | Rajeev Chandrasekhar (NDA) | C-Voter projects BJP win Β· TVM Corp NDA 17/23 wards 2025 |
| Thrithala | MB Rajesh (Speaker) loses | VT Balram (UDF) | C-Voter tips UDF Β· District trends fully reversed since 2021 |
| Idukki | Roshy Augustine (5-term) loses | Roy K Paulose (UDF) | UDF won all 5 segments in 2024 LS AND 2025 local body |
| Ambalappuzha | H. Salam (CPM) loses | G. Sudhakaran (rebel-UDF) | CPI-M itself said "losing Ambalappuzha = losing Kerala" |
| Kottarakkara | KN Balagopal (FM) loses | Aisha Potti (UDF) | Kollam Corp: first UDF win in 25 years completely rewrites narrative |
| Chengannur | Saji Cherian loses despite 32K margin | UDF candidate | Constitution remark controversy cannot be fully insulated by margin |
Ready to Transform Data into Decisions?
Infocrita Data Solutions delivers custom analytics, research, and intelligence services for businesses, governments, and academic institutions across India.